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美銀美林:降華能(0902.HK)評級至“跑輸大市” 下調電力股目標價
格隆匯 09-30 15:48

美銀美林發表報告指,中國國務院在9月26日表示,由明年起取消煤電價格聯動機制,將現行標杆上網電價機制,改為「基準價+上下浮動」的市場化機制,基準價按各地現行燃煤發電標杆上網電價確定,浮動範圍為上浮不超過10%、下浮不超過15%。

該行相信,新的電價政策或使行業投資資本回報率(RoIC)下降,部分電廠回報或低於其加權平均資本成本(WACC)水平,但並不認為新政策將觸發延遲償還債務或裁員。

美銀美林調整對中資電力股今年至2021年的每股盈利預測,並下調相關股份目標價。其中,華能國電(00902.HK) 目標價由5港元降至3.7港元,評級降至“跑輸大市”;華電國際(01071.HK)目標價由2.75港元降至2.5港元,評級“跑輸大市”;華潤電力(00836.HK)目標價由15.4港元降至14.1港元,評級“買入”;中國電力(02380.HK) 目標價由2.1港元降至2港元,評級“中性”

該行認為,風電及太陽能行業受新政策影響較少,推薦風電股,對龍源電力(00916.HK)的評級為“買入”,但目標價由8.8港元稍降至8.7港元。至於中廣核電力(01816.HK)則維持“買入”評級及目標價2.75港元。

美銀美林提到,現有風電和太陽能發電項目電費料將在2020年的營運期限內保持不變。由於太陽能和風電新項目的電價已接近平價(煤電基準電價)水平,建築成本進一步下降,將使風電和太陽能發電成本低於燃煤發電。

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