中金:內銀股估值已充份反映資產質量擔憂 推薦股息高大型內銀
中金髮表報告表示,目前機構投資者對內地銀行業前景展望負面,故持倉比例低,但該行認為目前估值已反映資產質量的憂慮、政策及風險事件影響,故建議關注受政策及風險事件影響較低的大行。
報告指出,目前A/H內銀股現價分別相當於2019年預測市帳率0.84及0.68倍,估值隱含的A/H銀行不良率為15.2%及18.4%,甚至高於錦州銀行(00416.HK)的14%,因此認為股價已反映宏觀經濟不利的因素。目前A/H四大行股息率超出十年期國債收益率水平為1.8%及3.1%,因此相信內銀H股已處於估值低位。
該行稱,今年第三及四季度內銀股撥備前營業利潤(PPOP)按年增速會有大幅度回落,故看好收益及利潤錄高增長的個股持續跑贏行業。該行推薦高股息的內銀H股,如建設銀行(00939.HK)、中國銀行(03988.HK)及農業銀行(01288.HK),看好其未來2至3季度的絕對收益表現,目標價分別為8.97港元、4.68港元及4.77港元。
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