中國民航信息網絡(00696.HK)：中期業績表現平穩，航空業短期將繼續受壓，給予“買入”評級，目標價 23.40港元
機構：輝立證券
評級：買入
目標價 ：23.40港元
投資概要
中國民航信息網絡為中國最大的航空業信息系統供應商，研發系統功能例如：航班控制、機票分銷、值機、配載、結算及清算和航空物流。我們採用現金折現法進行估值，並得出目標價$23.40港元，對應2019/20年市盈率分別為24.9倍及22.4倍，較早前目標價下降1.47%。我們維持“買入”評級，潛在回報約47.2%。(現價截9月25日)
中期業績表現平穩
集團公佈中期業績，收入38.4億人民幣，同比上升9.2%，其中航空信息技術服務收入、結算及清算收入、系統集成服務收入、數據網絡收入及其他收入分別同比增長+8.9%、+3.5%、+23.8%、-1.5%及+7.7%。純利14.4億人民幣，同比上升4.3%，主要由於成本增長較收入增長快。總營業成本同比上升12.1%，其中，人工成本、折舊及攤銷、佣金及推廣費用及軟硬件銷售成分別同比增長17.9%、38.4%、6.4%及66.9%。截至2019H1，集團的系統處理量達到3.37億，同比上升7.8%，其中中國和外國商營航空分別上升7.7%和9.6%；BSP客票系統處理量亦達到2.06億，同比增長7.6%。系統集成項目新增機場數及系統集成在建項目數亦分別達到10個和90個。
中國旅客運輸量保持增長，惟貨郵運輸量出現倒退
儘管今年中國經濟受中美貿易戰拖累，加上人民幣大幅貶值，1-7月份的旅客運輸量仍然同比增長8.7%，達到3.81億人次，但增速較去年同期下降3.4%。這和2008年金融危機時情況相同，旅客運輸量即使在經濟不景時仍然保持增長。我們認為這樣的現像是由於隨着人民消費力提高及廉航的出現，人民已經逐漸有能力負擔飛機出行，使對該服務的需求彈性減低，因此即使在經濟不景，旅客運輸量亦有不錯的表現。然而，貨運方面受中美貿易摩擦影響，1-7月份的貨郵運輸量同比下跌0.5%，約412.9萬噸。
訂座量回升，但仍低於過去
雖然集團今年三月及四月份的中國商營航空公司航班訂座量同比增長為九年來最低，只有3.3%和4.3%，但五月、六月及七月份的訂座量同比增長開始回升，分別為6.4%、6.4%及8.6。可是，今年的訂座量和過去比較仍然處於較低水平。有監於中美貿易戰和人民幣貶值的情況在短期內解決的機會不大，我們相信今年全年訂座量增長將保持較低位置。
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