三生製藥(01530.HK)：核心品種持續增長，多款產品上市在即，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價17.00 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：17.00 港元
投資要點
收入穩健增長，股權激勵費用導致利潤短期擾動：2019上半年公司核心產品——特比澳、益賽普、EPO（益比奧和賽博爾）銷售額分別為11.94、5.01和4.52億元，同比分別增長42.0%、13.2%和5.8%。管理費用率由去年同期的6.18%大幅上升至18.20%，主要是確認了3.4億元股權激勵費用所致，進而導致了歸母淨利潤的下滑，若不考慮股權激勵費用，2019上半年管理費用率約為5.32%，較去年同期略有下降。
核心產品持續增長可期：（1）特比澳：特比澳的市場份額持續上升，2019年二季度達到73.8%，但以銷量口徑統計市場滲透率仍然較低，未來還存在較大的增長潛力。（2）益賽普：益賽普在國內同類藥物中市場份額遙遙領先，2019年二季度為61.9%。受到競品上市的影響，未來一兩年競爭環境將更加嚴峻，但多家競爭有望共同把治療率和滲透率提高，另外2019年新版醫保目錄新增銀屑病適應症以及即將獲批的預充式注射劑帶來的一定增量市場，我們認為未來幾年內該產品仍有望保持增長。（3）EPO：公司EPO類產品的市場份額穩居第一，2019年二季度達到41.3%，2019年新版醫保目錄新納入非骨髓惡性腫瘤化療引起的貧血適應症有望助力滲透率繼續提升。
自主研發與對外合作並舉，有望助力業績再上台階：在自主研發方面，伊尼妥單抗有望於2019年四季度獲批；益賽普預充式注射劑的生產申請已獲得CDE受理。在對外合作方面，公司已與Samsung、Verseau、TLC等公司達成戰略合作，有望進一步豐富公司的產品線。
盈利預測與估值：我們認為公司已上市的重點產品——特比澳、益賽普、EPO在各自領域的龍頭地位將繼續維持，在研產品的陸續上市也有望助力公司業績的可持續增長。我們預計公司2019-2021年營業收入為55.63、67.76、81.05億元，淨利潤為12.69、17.33、19.79億元，EPS為0.50、0.68、0.78元。我們維持17港元目標價不變，對應2019-2021年預測PE為30.54倍、22.36倍、19.58倍，維持“審慎增持”評級。
風險提示：TNFα抑制劑競爭降價幅度超預期、在研產品上市進度不及預期、二線品種及新上市產品銷售低於預期。
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