萬洲國際(00288.HK)：三季度中國市場業務改善，維持“買入”評級，目標價9.20港元
機構：招商銀行
評級：買入
目標價：9.20港元
我們昨天安排了路演活動，投資者主要關注各板塊盈利能力以及政策。在肉製品業務驅動下，三季度中國市場業務改善的情況較我們預期好。
三季度中國市場業務改善。(1)肉製品﹕這是集團第二大盈利貢獻板塊(佔2019上半年38%分部盈利)。在7月份提價4%及使用低成本豬肉儲備下，三季度噸均利潤較2019年上半年明顯改善，完全抵銷了成本的上漲。於六月底推出市場的雙匯筷廚炒菜煎烤腸表現不俗，月均銷售量約八百噸。(2)屠宰﹕基於供應短缺，生豬屠宰量同比下跌及頭均經營成本上升，但是，集團開始銷售一些低成本的豬肉存貨，我們認為2019下半年頭均利潤可以維持在正常水平(40-60頭均利潤)以上。
下半年美國市場業務較上半年好。(1)生豬養殖：管理層重申，受惠於上半年公司的對衝活動，預計下半年及全年生豬業務將實現盈利。(2)屠宰：七月業務仍錄得虧損，但八月已扭虧。我們預計屠宰業務將走出二季度困局，盈利能力於三季度有所改善。(3)肉製品：受益產品結構持續改善，估計下半年經營利潤率同比持續改善。
關注10月中美貿易談判結果。有報道指，中國政府將支持企業向美國採購一定數量豬肉並豁免加徵關税，但萬洲暫未就此接獲正式通知。根據美國媒體CNBC，美國財政部長姆努欽指中美官員將在兩週後重啟貿易談判。管理層估計中國政府將於兩國貿易磋商後才對豁免新徵關税一事作出定斷。
國內生豬價格料在未來兩季繼續上漲。管理層估計隨着國內生豬及母豬存欄同比大幅下降，以及豬肉消耗高峯期來臨，豬肉價格將繼續上漲。萬洲正不斷從海外蒐羅平價豬肉作庫存。考慮到美國生豬及白條肉價格較中國價格分別有67%及69%折讓，我們估計美國出口至中國的豬肉數量將持續增加，對美國生豬及豬肉價格形成支持。
維持買入。我們的SOTP基準的目標價維持在9.20港元，對應FY19E14.3倍市盈率。催化劑﹕中國降低美國進口豬肉關税或增加採購美國豬肉。
風險﹕肉製品及屠宰業務利潤率低於預期。
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