高盛:籲買入平安銀行(000001.SZ)、招商銀行(3968.HK)等
高盛發表報告指,更新了上市中資銀行的隱含不良貸款(implied NPL)測試,並注意到在今年第二季,企業隱含不良貸款比率略有上升,按季增長0.4個百分點至5.3%,但仍低於整個週期水平。
該行表示,由於宏觀展望疲弱,增長潛在放緩為未來隱含不良貸款率最大的波動因素。不過,該行預計中國人民銀行將繼續寬鬆取向,企業融資成本將降低,此有助維持企業的盈利能力。高盛預計,今年利息支出每節省25個基點,隱含不良貸款將減少0.2個百分點。
高盛又稱,計算系統貸款減值儲備(LLR)等因素,料內銀業已準備好消化更多不良貸款。因此,該行偏好資產負債表較清晰,且準備充足緩衝資產的銀行,籲買入平安銀行(000001.SZ)、招商銀行(3968.HK)
、興業銀行(601166.SH)及南京銀行(601009.SH),並保持警惕可能受極端風險影響的華夏銀行(600015.SH),對其評級為“
沽售
”。另外,為反映該行覆蓋研究的內銀股在今年至2021年的信貸成本假設分別提升6、1及1個基點,高盛對有關銀行今年的淨利潤預測上調1%,明年及2021年則分別下調1%。
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