植耀辉: 港股急跌後料有反弹 港交所(00388.HK)难有憧憬
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,港股昨日(25日)又再度急挫,并跌破26,000点水平。中美贸易谈判又转趋紧张,加上A股走势亦转弱,变相令港股走势更差。笔者预期大市於25,800点附近,亦即9月初低位会有一定支持,亦不排除会出现技术反弹。事实上隔晚又再传出中美贸易谈判又有正面发展,故今日(26日)大市可能又再出现反弹;但在未出现突破消息之前,恒指将有相当大机会在稍後时间考验25,000点或更低水平。
亦要谈谈港交所(00388.HK)有意向伦交所「抢婚」事宜。就全球金融业发展而言,交易所之间进行并购并不是新奇事,但像港交所如此锲而不舍则较少见。当然,不难猜测港交所今次出价如此进取的动机,志在形成一个覆盖亚欧美三大时区之交易所集团;问题只是如此「重本」是否值得?事实上自9月11日宣布「出手」後,港交所股价连日下挫,累跌超过10%,远差於同期恒指表现,某程度上反映投资者对今次收购相当负面;若港交所继续一意孤行,继续提价作出收购,股价恐会继续寻底。
而且即使伦交所愿意这门「亲事」,但英国现时亦正身陷脱欧风波,亦未知如何拆局;何况伦交所可能早已「心有所属」─伦交所在回覆港交所信件中便提到,「意识到中国市场机遇的规模,并且十分重视与上交所的互利合作关系……可以获得中国的许多机遇」。简单一句,就是「神女有心,襄王无梦」!
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