中國燃氣(0384.HK)：哈爾濱反向非交易路演重申俄氣對供應所帶來的利好，重申買入評級，目標價38.3 港元
機構：招商證券
評級：買入
目標價：38.3 港元
■ 當地政府領導表示將利用備受矚目的俄羅斯天然氣供應，致力以更高 的氣化水平打造更清潔的環境
■ 來自冬季供暖需求和工商業客户的燃氣消費量將有大幅增長的潛力
■ 天然氣消費增長維持穩健；重申買入評級 龐大需求靜待俄羅斯天然氣供應 我們出席了中國燃氣於9月23-24日在黑龍江哈爾濱舉辦的反向非交易路 演。重點紀要：黑龍江省的天然氣消費增長受管道燃氣供應限制的制約， 加上因液化天然氣使用比例較高（尤其是供暖季節）以及天然氣管道基礎 設施不足，導致天然氣價格高企。俄羅斯天然氣預計將於今年12月1日供 氣，並在3到5年內大幅加大供應，這將推動天然氣發展趨勢的逆轉：供應 增加，價格下滑，繼而帶動更高的需求。
供暖、工商業客户和交通為主要需求推動因素 我們的實地調研顯示供暖和工業用户拉動煤改氣潛在需求。與北京的情況 類似，黑龍江的居民供暖需求透過中央燃煤供暖廠來滿足。這些工廠的廢 氣排放以及用於運作的煤炭運輸和存放與當地居民的矛盾日益加深，同時 對推進城鎮發展亦帶來一定的問題，故當地居民有強烈的意願致力於煤改 氣工程。對於工業用户而言亦是如此，煤改氣符合城市清潔空氣的目標， 在有更廉宜的天然氣供應情況下，進一步煤改氣將有廣闊的空間。此外， 交通工具轉為使用天然氣也是協助實現清潔空氣目標的第三個增長動力 （而非電動汽車，因其在寒冷環境中電池效率較低）。
東北省份其他地區增長趨勢相若 天然氣需求增長趨勢亦延伸到東北省份的其他地區：遼寧和吉林，該兩省 加上黑龍江的天然氣消費水平預計於2025年將達到245億立方米，相比 2018年為142億立方米（複合年增長率為8%），預計中國燃氣將佔當中 37%的份額，意味着與19財年集團的零售天然氣銷量相比等於其天然氣銷 量增長的62%。重申買入評級，預測維持不變。
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