中国燃气(0384.HK)：哈尔滨反向非交易路演重申俄气对供应所带来的利好，重申买入评级，目标价38.3 港元
机构：招商证券
评级：买入
目标价：38.3 港元
■ 当地政府领导表示将利用备受瞩目的俄罗斯天然气供应，致力以更高 的气化水平打造更清洁的环境
■ 来自冬季供暖需求和工商业客户的燃气消费量将有大幅增长的潜力
■ 天然气消费增长维持稳健；重申买入评级 庞大需求静待俄罗斯天然气供应 我们出席了中国燃气于9月23-24日在黑龙江哈尔滨举办的反向非交易路 演。重点纪要：黑龙江省的天然气消费增长受管道燃气供应限制的制约， 加上因液化天然气使用比例较高（尤其是供暖季节）以及天然气管道基础 设施不足，导致天然气价格高企。俄罗斯天然气预计将于今年12月1日供 气，并在3到5年内大幅加大供应，这将推动天然气发展趋势的逆转：供应 增加，价格下滑，继而带动更高的需求。
供暖、工商业客户和交通为主要需求推动因素 我们的实地调研显示供暖和工业用户拉动煤改气潜在需求。与北京的情况 类似，黑龙江的居民供暖需求透过中央燃煤供暖厂来满足。这些工厂的废 气排放以及用于运作的煤炭运输和存放与当地居民的矛盾日益加深，同时 对推进城镇发展亦带来一定的问题，故当地居民有强烈的意愿致力于煤改 气工程。对于工业用户而言亦是如此，煤改气符合城市清洁空气的目标， 在有更廉宜的天然气供应情况下，进一步煤改气将有广阔的空间。此外， 交通工具转为使用天然气也是协助实现清洁空气目标的第三个增长动力 （而非电动汽车，因其在寒冷环境中电池效率较低）。
东北省份其他地区增长趋势相若 天然气需求增长趋势亦延伸到东北省份的其他地区：辽宁和吉林，该两省 加上黑龙江的天然气消费水平预计于2025年将达到245亿立方米，相比 2018年为142亿立方米（复合年增长率为8%），预计中国燃气将占当中 37%的份额，意味着与19财年集团的零售天然气销量相比等于其天然气销 量增长的62%。重申买入评级，预测维持不变。
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