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中國太保(2601.HK):潛在GDR發行解鎖全球市場,維持買入評級,目標價 37.12港元
格隆匯 09-25 14:16

機構:招商銀行

評級:買入

目標價:37.12港元

 最新資訊。市場對太保發行 GDR 的計劃反應消極,因為擔心 GDR 的價格可 能會比其 A股折價,且上市 120天后允許 GDR轉換為 A股可能稀釋股價。而 同日公司公告,由於工作安排,賀青總裁辭職,並將出任國泰君安證券董事, 令不確定增加。中國太保的 A/H 股價在 9月 24日分別下跌 2.7%/4.3%。 

 儘管上述確實是風險因素,但我們認為投資者不應反應過度,因為 1)上市細 節尚未確定, GDR 的發行仍在等待監管部門批准。報價將取決於上市時的市 場環境。此外,由於 H 股對 A 股折價約 30%,因此對 A 股折價並不一定意味 着對 H 股會有顯著折價。2)理論上允許 GDR 在上市交易 120 天后轉換為 A 股,即理論上存在套利機會,但實際操作可能會很困難。華泰證券的 GDR 將 於 10月(即 2019年 6月 20日首次公開發行後的 120個交易日)之後提供先 例供借鑑;3)在國有企業中,工作安排輪換是很正常的。孔慶偉董事長將臨 時負責組織公司管理,幫助公司順利過渡。我們相信太保的戰略和公司管理將 具有延續性,不易受到總裁離職的影響。 

 潛在的 GDR 發行至少意味着以下催化劑,所有這些都利好長期發展。1)得 到全球投資者的認可。如果 GDR 的發行獲得了全球投資者的普遍認可,還將 間接促進 H 股價值發現。2)快速啟動並助推公司的國際化戰略。3)推進上 海的國有企業改革和金融業開放。 

 抓住上海和長江三角洲的機遇。除了潛在的 GDR 上市外,我們認為公司還將 受益於 1)上海對全球投資者和企業的加深開放。上海市最近將自由貿易試驗 區擴展到了臨港新區。2)長三角一體化。長三角區域的發展計劃將為養老保 險、另類投資等提供商機。太保作為總部在上海、根治於上海和長三角的險企, 將直接受益。 

 維持行業首選中國太保。公司 H 股股價相當於 0.63 倍 2019 年預測每股內含 價值,股息率約為 6%。市場對可能發行的 GDR 的過度反應提供了良好的投 資機會。維持買入評級和目標價 37.12港元。 

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