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野村:融創(1918.HK)土儲是行內最佳之一 目標價50港元
格隆匯 09-25 10:39
野村發表的研究報告指,仔細研究融創中國(1918.HK) 的土地儲存及一、二線城市市場後,該行認為公司去槓桿程度無容置疑,預期到2021年其淨負債水平將由今年上半年的224%降至67%,相信去槓桿的重要舉措之一是拿地態度將較審慎,料今年下半年至2021財年將以銷售回款的28%用作購地,而2017財年至今年上半年相關水平達64%,主要因為公司已有較龐大的土儲,當中一、二線城市土儲規模已是2018財年一、二線城市銷售的5倍,而行業整合空間亦有所收窄。
野村認為融創土儲是行內最佳之一,當中有81%土地是位於一、二線城市,估計公司可售資源達2.38萬億元人民幣,相當於2018財年銷售的5.2倍,而受惠併購方面的優勢,其土儲平均成本只是其銷售均價的27%。該行認為股份被低估,主要受惠去槓桿帶動未來有機會跑贏,另外亦有很大空間被重估,因為現價計算2020年預測市盈率僅3.7倍,與其他大型股比較有折讓,而與同業萬科比較亦有41%的折讓,故予目標價50港元,相信去槓桿可成短期的催化劑,以碧桂園(2007.HK) 及新城發展(1030.HK) 為例,他們公佈槓桿水平下降後股價表現亦跑贏恆指。
該行指出受近期針對發展商融資的監管影響,融創股價過去三個月跑輸MSCI中國指數15%,但該行認為相關措施未必會帶來負面影響,因為融資環境收緊將令投資者更肯定去槓桿的需要,亦是該行預計對公司未來估值提升的重要引擎。
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