野村:騰訊(0700.HK)增持Supercell對財務影響有限 維持“買入”評級
野村發表的研究報告指,騰訊控股(00700.HK)於23日宣佈計劃將其在財團內的權益由50%升至51.2%,該財團是在2016年6月成立,以收購Supercell 82%的股權,而在交易前由於騰訊僅間接持有Supercell的41%權益,故不需要整合財務報表,但交易完成後,該行相信騰訊將需要整合財務報表。
該行認為交易對騰訊財務影響有限,因為Supercell現時有5個自行研發手機遊戲,包括是《荒野亂鬥》、《部落衝突:皇室戰爭》、《海島奇兵》、《部落衝突》及《卡通農場》,而新遊戲《突襲戰爭》亦已開始測試,由於Supercell去年並無推出新遊戲故導致收入下跌,去年其EBITDA按年跌22%至6.35億美元,收入則跌21%至16億美元,該行假設今年其收入將按年跌10%,明年收入則持平,而EBITDA利潤率企穩在38%的水平,倘整合至騰訊財務報表內,有望帶動騰訊2020財年收入及盈利預測分別升2%及1%。
該行維持對騰訊“買入”評級,目標價428港元不變,現價為2020年市盈率預測27倍,意味仍有27%上行空間。該行認為公司的手遊業務估值達1,030億美元,而微信廣告業務估值則為1,180億美元,微信支付估值2,000億美元。
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