中國聯塑(2128.HK)油價急漲不影響盈利能力，維持“增持”評級，目標價 8.55 港元
機構：銀河證券
評級：增持
目標價：8.55 港元
■ 雖然近期油價上漲，但預計不會拖累中國聯塑的盈利能力。
■ PVC 管道業務（佔管道業務收入的 63％）的表現不受油價影響。
■ 至於非 PVC 管道業務，公司的原材料庫存應能滿足未來三到四個月的需求。
■ 從過去數年的往績記錄來看，如果接下來油價保持高位，公司在未來幾個月應 有足夠時間逐步提價。
■ 我們維持目標價 8.55 港元（8 倍 2020 年預測市盈率）和盈利預測。重申「增 持」評級。
管道業務約 37％收入是與油價相關
由於市場關注沙特阿拉伯石油供應受干擾，油價近日急漲。在 2019 上半年，中國 聯塑非 PVC（聚氯乙烯）管道業務佔塑料管道業務收入的 36.8％。該業務涉及的 主要原材料包括 HDPE（高密度聚乙烯）和 PP（聚丙烯）等，均受油價所影響。
原材料庫存達 3-4 個月 短期內不受油價急漲影響
在與公司會談後，我們瞭解到公司擁有 3-4 個月的原材料庫存，因此短期內成本壓 力不會增加。除非油價長期保持高位，否則預計毛利率不會受壓。
歷史證明成本加成定價模式有助維持穩定利潤率
如果油價長期維持高位，我們相信對盈利的影響仍將是可控。雖然公司以往的半年 度毛利率有一些起伏，但以全年來看，2010-2018 年的年度毛利率一直維持穩定在 24.2％至 26.6％之間，反映公司有效地通過成本加成定價模式向客户轉嫁了成本 壓力。
PVC 管道業務受油價的影響不大
在2019上半年，PVC管道佔管道業務總收入的63％。該業務的關鍵原材料是PVC， 但相信該業務不受油價影響。公司使用的 PVC 是通過電石法生產，因此該業務受 煤價而非油價影響。
維持增持評級
我們維持對中國聯塑的盈利預測，因為預計油價上漲不會在短期內影響盈利能力。 根據以往記錄，即使接下來油價長期處於高位，我們相信公司仍能將成本壓力轉嫁 給客户。我們維持目標價 8.55 港元（8 倍 2020 年預期市盈率）。我們認為，若市 場憂慮成本壓力而導致股價調整，將提供進場的良機。
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