中国联塑(2128.HK)油价急涨不影响盈利能力，维持“增持”评级，目标价 8.55 港元
机构：银河证券
评级：增持
目标价：8.55 港元
■ 虽然近期油价上涨，但预计不会拖累中国联塑的盈利能力。
■ PVC 管道业务（占管道业务收入的 63％）的表现不受油价影响。
■ 至于非 PVC 管道业务，公司的原材料库存应能满足未来三到四个月的需求。
■ 从过去数年的往绩记录来看，如果接下来油价保持高位，公司在未来几个月应 有足够时间逐步提价。
■ 我们维持目标价 8.55 港元（8 倍 2020 年预测市盈率）和盈利预测。重申「增 持」评级。
管道业务约 37％收入是与油价相关
由于市场关注沙特阿拉伯石油供应受干扰，油价近日急涨。在 2019 上半年，中国 联塑非 PVC（聚氯乙烯）管道业务占塑料管道业务收入的 36.8％。该业务涉及的 主要原材料包括 HDPE（高密度聚乙烯）和 PP（聚丙烯）等，均受油价所影响。
原材料库存达 3-4 个月 短期内不受油价急涨影响
在与公司会谈后，我们了解到公司拥有 3-4 个月的原材料库存，因此短期内成本压 力不会增加。除非油价长期保持高位，否则预计毛利率不会受压。
历史证明成本加成定价模式有助维持稳定利润率
如果油价长期维持高位，我们相信对盈利的影响仍将是可控。虽然公司以往的半年 度毛利率有一些起伏，但以全年来看，2010-2018 年的年度毛利率一直维持稳定在 24.2％至 26.6％之间，反映公司有效地通过成本加成定价模式向客户转嫁了成本 压力。
PVC 管道业务受油价的影响不大
在2019上半年，PVC管道占管道业务总收入的63％。该业务的关键原材料是PVC， 但相信该业务不受油价影响。公司使用的 PVC 是通过电石法生产，因此该业务受 煤价而非油价影响。
维持增持评级
我们维持对中国联塑的盈利预测，因为预计油价上涨不会在短期内影响盈利能力。 根据以往记录，即使接下来油价长期处于高位，我们相信公司仍能将成本压力转嫁 给客户。我们维持目标价 8.55 港元（8 倍 2020 年预期市盈率）。我们认为，若市 场忧虑成本压力而导致股价调整，将提供进场的良机。
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