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中國太平(0966.HK)首次覆蓋報告:戰略聚焦價值提升,市場化考核提升產能,首次覆蓋給予“增持”評級,目標價 22.72 港元
格隆匯 09-24 14:39

機構:國泰君安

評級:增持

目標價:22.72 港元

本報告導讀: 公司管理層更替之後,新戰略注重提升業務發展質量,同時也延續了市場化考核機制 的優點,後續公司在人均產能驅動的價值提升速度上有望超預期,給予增持評級。 

摘要:

 首次覆蓋給予目標價 22.72 港元,給予“增持”評級:預測 中國太平 2019-2021 歸母淨利潤為 106.9 億港元、127.6 億港 元和 114.9 億港元。通過可比公司估值法和分部估值法,給 予其目標價 22.72 港元,對應目前市場價格 18.02 港元每股, 溢價 26%,首次覆蓋給予“增持”評級。 

 新戰略有的放矢,未來業務質量有望超預期提升:公司管理 層更替之後,新的戰略對前期快速發展過程中的業務質量亟 待提升的問題進行有針對性的解決,同時也延續了前期戰略 中如市場化等能推動業務快速發展的精華部分。我們認為公 司的新戰略在科技賦能營銷、集團協同效應方面如能夠有效 落地,能夠針對性彌補人均產能提升乏力的短板,在人均產 能、價值率等業務質量指標上有超預期表現。 

 市場化機制有望延續,後續價值增速有望超預期:公司的主 要利潤來自於壽險業務(2018 年淨利潤的 70%),壽險業務 方面,公司對銀保渠道的依賴逐年下降,而個險代理人渠道 的業務貢獻比例快速提升。因此,公司 2019 年以來對市場化 考核機制進一步加強的舉措,有望進一步提升代理人渠道產 能,進而實現公司整體業績增速的提升。同時,由於個險渠 道主要銷售高價值率產品,預計也將有效提升新業務價值率、 內含價值增速等價值指標,縮小公司和行業領先同業之間的 差距。 

 催化劑:保費快速增長帶動後續利潤超預期釋放 

 風險提示:監管政策影響代理人渠道規模;利率下行帶來投 資端壓力 

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