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西部證券:降首都機場(00694.HK)至“增持”評級 轉場短期對業績的衝擊
格隆匯 09-23 16:49

西部證券發表研報指,北京大興國際機場近期將執行其首次商業飛行,月底前有望順利通航。該行認為,新轉場方案利好北京首都機場(00694.HK)。首都機場的航班時刻較原方案多了東航的京滬航線,由於航線上絕大多數為消費能力較強的公商務旅客,這將一定程度上有利於首都機場的非航業務增長。

研報指,考慮到地理位置優勢,高價值旅客更傾向於選擇首都機場出行。中性假設下,該行預計首都機場2019/20/21年飛機起降架次同比增速分別為-3.0%/-18.0%/-15.0%,同期旅客吞吐量同比增速分別為-1.5%/-16.6%/-12.7%。同時,由於南航和東航在首都機場國際航線中佔比較小,因此轉場對首都機場國際航班和旅客量的影響要小於國內航線。

研報又指,雖然該行預計首都機場2019/20/21年國際航線飛機起降架次和旅客吞吐量同比增速分別為-1.0%/-15.0%/-10.0%和2.0%/-13.0%/-9.0%,免税業務收入增速將受到影響。但中長期看,首都機場國際旅客佔比在不斷提升,其遠期新增時刻一半以上也將用於國際航線,非航業務增長動力依然十足。

考慮轉場分流、民航發展基金取消、成本端等因素,該行下調該公司2019/20/21年每股基本盈利至0.56/0.41/0.34元,基於轉場短期對業績的衝擊,下調評級至“增持”。長期看,京津冀地區航空需求旺盛,首都機場客流量將恢復增長至1億人次,而國際旅客量則突破3,500萬人,航線/旅客結構甚至優於現階段,長期價值並沒有降低,無需過度悲觀。

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