《大行報告》摩通料中資股短期迎技術性復甦 首選中鐵建、石藥等股份
摩根大通發表報告,中國資本市場於8月份受中美兩國互相加徵稅消息影響,但踏入9月市場情緒持續改善,主要催化劑包括內地推出支持經濟政策包括下調存款準備金率、改革貸款市場報價利率、推出財政政策、而環球央行亦同步進行放鬆政策、兼且中美兩國貿易緊張關係有所緩和,並扭轉近期人民幣貶值趨勢。
該行指,內地7月經濟數據走弱後,8月數據適度改善,工業增加值按月上升,但固投、零售銷售及出口均低於預期,並已下調對中國今年第三季經濟按年增長預測,由6.2%下修至6.1%,並維持全年增長6.2%預測。摩通估計,中資股市場短期可迎來技術性復甦,全球焦點轉至價值股,周期性及具價值的中資股於9月以來股價亮麗,而資訊科技行業股份仍受惠中美貿易緊張壓力緩和。
該行認為,中資基建股於今年餘下時間可受惠國策、料弱勢板塊短期可跑贏大市,但從長線而言該行較看好防守性股份。人民幣貶值走勢對中資股為主要風險因素,特別對內房及中資航空股構成影響;該行亦喜歡內險及中資醫藥健康板塊,因監管環境及盈利前景改善。
摩通表示,建議增持工業、內險、必需性消費品、醫療、耐用消費品行業,而該行的中資股首選包括國壽(02628.HK)、中鐵建(01186.HK)、石藥(01093.HK)、華潤水泥(01313.HK)及深圳機場(000089.SZ)。
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