中國科培(1890.HK)：19／20在校生+28%，新生提費約10%，奠定成長動能，給予買入評級
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
本週五中國科培公告最新在校生及學費變化，具體來看：
旗下兩學校 19/20 學年在校生增加至 57,924 人，同比增長約 28.4%。
其中廣東理工學院 19/20 學年的在校生增加至 50,315 人，同比增長約 36.5%，主要是系：(i)19/20 學年本科生增加至 23,823 人，同比增長約 19.3%。 (ii)校外成人大學課程在校生增加至 14,876 人，同比增長 103.2%；(iii)19/20 學年校內成人大學課程在校生增加至 4783 人，同比增長 145.2%； (iv)19/20 學年大專課程的在校生減少至 6,833 人，同比減少約 10.2%。
肇慶學校於 19/20 學年在校生較 7609 人，同比減少 7.9%，同樣系統計口 徑調整所致（受財務結算及學籍註冊時間影響），該部分調後減少 3.9%。
19/20 學年廣東理工學院新入校本科生平均學費增至 23,800 元，同比增長 約 6.7%；新入校大專生平均學費 17,800 元，同比增長 9.2%。 19/20 學年 廣東理工學院其他課程的平均學費維持穩定。
肇慶學校於 19/20 學年新入校學生平均學費增加至 8059 元，同比增長約 15.5%。
提費將在人數增長基礎上為公司成長提供雙維保障。
維持盈利預測，給予買入評級。
公司是華南地區領先的民辦學歷高等教育提供商，專注於應用型教育。未 來擬增加學校的容納人數及利用率以及優化業務架構及定價以最大化內生 增長，廣東理工學院鼎湖三期和高要校區擴建進一步增加學校的容納人數。 廣東理工學院新校區將在 2019 年下半年竣工，並進一步將廣 東理工學院 的容納人數擴大逾 3000 名學生，計劃進一步改造廣東理工學院的高要校 區，重點擴張及改造宿舍及配套設施。預期可容納約 7,000 名學 生的宿舍 將於 2020 年第二季度竣工。
我們預計 FY19、FY20 淨利潤分別為 4.3 億元、5 億元人民幣，對應 PE 分別 為 16x、13x。
風險提示：民促法實施條例尚未落地，税收土地補繳風險
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