【計算機行業】新競爭時代，科技堪當國之利器，關注結構性機會
機構：國聯證券
投資要點：
營收增速壓力加劇，淨利增速維持平穩
2019年上半年，計算機行業上市公司營業收入合計2077.34億元，同比增長6.62%，相比18年H126.63%的增速下滑明顯，19Q1顯現的營收壓力問題進一步加劇；實現歸母淨利潤合計161.92億元，同比增長9.67%，相比18年上半年8.60%的表現總體維持平穩，略有上升。從增速分佈看，在利潤端持續分化後，2019H1計算機營收端變化亦呈加速態勢，經濟下行壓力下，計算機行業後周期性逐步顯現，不同細分行業抗週期能力各不相同。
毛利率與費用率同升，公允價值等對淨利增速貢獻較大
從盈利層面看，2019H1計算機行業整體毛利率為33.47%，相比18年同期提升1.87個百分點，而期間費用率亦有所上升，由2018H1的23.13%上升至2019年上半年的25.72%。我們分析，除毛利率及期間費用率等常規擾動因素外，2019H1淨利增速快於營收的主要貢獻者是投資收益及公允價值變動淨收益。2019年上半年，行業整體投資收益24.93億元，同比增長70.10%；行業公允價值變動淨收益6.98億元，而去年同期為-5.04億元。
計算機後周期性，H1營收增速下滑超預期，未來有望企穩
展望未來，考慮到計算機的後周期性，我們對比代表宏觀經濟的滬深300（非金融）營收情況，與計算機數據相擬合，發現向後推12個月時兩者的一致性最高。據此分析可知2019H1計算機營收增速的下滑幅度存在超預期現象，我們判斷後續行業營收增速雖仍面臨壓力，但有望逐步企穩；至於利潤端，除控制成本、費用外，減值風險加大了淨利變化的不確定性。
子行業景氣度分析：大數據、雲計算、AI等表現優異分析計算機18個細分子行業的營收及淨利增速，在剔除由於個別公司特殊情況產生的異常值後，發現人工智能、大數據、交通信息化、雲計算、金融IT等子行業表現優異，後續值得重點關注。
新競爭時代，科技堪當國之利器，建議關注結構性機會
站在今天的時點上，除做好國內經濟結構轉型升級外，國際形勢變局亦不容忽視，我們認為，大國間的博弈或將長期存在，堅持科技創新才是安身立命之本，“國家賴之以強，企業賴之以贏”，科技堪當國之利器，建議關注結構性機會：一是實現自主可控堅定發展基石，二是推進新興科技創造經濟增長新動能。
結合經營情況，推薦投資組合：用友網絡（600588）、廣聯達（002410）、易華錄（300212）、美亞柏科（300188）、創業慧康（300451）、四維圖新（002405）。
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