《大行報告》中金首予中糧肉食(01610.HK)「跑贏行業」評級目標價3.6元
中金發表報告指,首次覆蓋研究中糧肉食(01610.HK),給予「跑贏行業」評級,目標價3.6元,對應2019/2020年市盈率為31.2/5.8倍。中金預計,公司今明兩年每股盈利分別為0.1、0.57元人民幣,年均複合增長率為212.6%,認為豬價上漲將帶動公司明年業績大幅釋放。
該行表示,通過彈性測算和歷史框架進行判斷,認為當前豬價處於上行週期中,相對看好今年下半年及明年豬價表現。同時,中國生豬養殖龍頭具有成本優勢,但整體市佔率較低,行業前五位養殖公司總市佔率僅約7%,認為未來養殖規模化與頭部份額提升將是確定趨勢。
中金認為,中糧肉食以自繁自養模式為主,配套種豬、飼料、硬件等設施,以保障高效率及低成本。而且公司經營穩健,財務健康,具有產能擴張基礎。預計今年公司生豬養殖產能將增加近100萬頭至約500萬頭。同時,考慮非洲豬瘟疫情影響,認為今年公司生豬出欄量將承壓,但因下半年公司母豬存欄開始回升,公司明年出欄量有望恢復。整體看,預計2019/2020年出欄量分別為220/300萬頭,按年下跌13.7%/上升36.4%。
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