香港交易所(0388.HK)：并购伦交所虽受挫折，港交所仍为服务中国连接世界而努力，维持“买入”评级
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：290.34港元
投资要点
我们的观点：港交所提议并购伦交所虽未被伦交所采纳，在中国内地和中国香港两地互联互通机制不断完善背景下，港交所将持续发挥其"立足中国、连接全球"的金融桥头堡作用。我们维持公司"买入"评级，维持公司目标价290.34港元。2019-2021年，公司目标价对应PE水平分别为35.9、32.8和29.8倍，对应PB水平分别为7.0、6.8和6.6倍。公司目标价较现价有约24.8%的升幅,建议投资者关注。
港交所从交易货币、产品及服务、金融基础设施、覆盖市场、金融科技共5个维度考虑，希望收购与其高度互补的伦交所：两者强强联手将创造一个真正横贯东西、连接全球的金融基础设施及交易所集团，并会成为美元、欧元、人民币等主要货币计价的金融资产的领先的国际交易平台；成为全球东西资本自由流动与市场融合至关重要的投资交易及风险管理金融基础设施；为全球上市公司和投资者提供全资产、全方位、全产品服务等。
并购提议符合港交所“立足中国、连接全球、拥抱科技”的战略规划：本次港交所提议收购与其《战略规划2019-2021》高度契合。中国香港作为中国资本出海的桥头堡，持续享受内地市场对外开放和互联互通的发展红利。
受益互联互通，港交所仍为中国连接世界的桥头堡：1）沪深港股通保持强劲增长，2019年上半年，北上交易活跃，沪股通和深股通合计平均每日成交439亿元人民币，创半年度新高。2）港股通日益壮大推动中国内地取代英国成为港股市场第一大投资来源。2018年度，中国内地的投资者交易超越英国，排名第一，占外地投资者交易的28%及市场总成交金额的12%。3）持续推进上市制度改革，吸引大量新经济企业赴港上市。
风险提示：1）沪港股通交易增长不及预期；2）市场交易量萎缩；3）社会事件对市场情绪造成负面影响；4）IPO数量及规模减少
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