《大行報告》里昂:內銀首選建行及工行 中資券商股首選華泰證券
里昂發表報告表示,內地今輪貨幣放鬆周期,令其回想起上一輪寬鬆周期(2014年第四季至2015年上半年),內地利率回落,但去槓桿政策同時降低高息產品的供應,與2014年第四季壓制地方政府融資平台(LGFV)相似。
該行認為,內地目前周期是由收緊房地產政策,資產配置方面,難以尋找高回報及高質素並存的產品,變相令股票資產更吸引,料帶動內地券商表現,特別是高息券商股。
里昂指,流動性增加有助支持A股市場,同時資本市場亦可有監管機構注視,有支撐政策,例如開放市場、吸引長線基金、企業管治,該看好華泰證券(06886.HK)。
該行表示,內地國有四大商銀的股息回報達到6.1%,較10年期中國國債孳息率為高,而且更吸引在岸投資者,但需留意會受寬鬆政策及「國家任務」所影響,但目前認為已經在現價反映,在減息、支持中小企、接管小型銀行等背景下,料對內地銀行盈利影響有限,該行首選建行(00939.HK)及工行(01398.HK)。
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