瑞银:下调交行(3328.HK)目标价至5.8港元 料收入增长放缓
瑞银发表研究报告,指交行(03328.HK)在过去数季维持很强的动力,但在第二季收入和拨备前盈利都只有单位数的增长,未来预期收入维持相对较弱的表现,而利润则维持稳定。收入增长放慢、宏观经济的风险、人民币积弱都会影响公司的估值,降目标价由7.1港元至5.8港元,评级“中性”。
该行指,交行净息差於去年下半年因银行间贷款利息下降而利好。今年整体银行业净息差都有转差的情况,交行去年下半年已达净息差高位,净息差下降,以及净利息收入下跌会在接下来的几个季度出现。非利息收入於过去数季受惠新的会计政策令资产以市价计算後见增长,虽然低息环境有利於公允价值收益,但由於体积效应不再,预期交行今年余下时间收入和拨备前盈利增长维持温和。
该行又指,因应收入和拨备前盈利增放慢,预期盈利增长维持在5%,与其他大型银行的表现一致,但因公司的拨备贷款比讯相对较低,信贷成本亦较低,故纯利增长会较脆弱,拨备风险的缓冲较少。
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