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重庆农村商业银行(3618.HK ): 县域主城协同优势显著,农商龙头A股起航,给予“买入”评级
格隆汇 09-18 09:00

机构:广发证券

评级:买入

投资建议:

县域和主城区业务协同效应显著,重庆农商行盈利能力位居行业上游。

区域领先的县域分销网点数和县域覆盖率为重庆农商行带来稳定低价的存款来源,资产端一方面向风险收益更优的主城地区倾斜,另一方面配置标准化投资类资产,在重庆地区有效信贷需求不足的大背景下获得超额收益。重庆农商行贷款投放集中于基建和制造业,总体风险可控,随着重庆地区经济下行压力边际减弱,不良率和不良生成率19H1均出现回落,不良贷款确认充分,拨备水平远高于同业。公司核心一级资本实力在A股上市城农商行中较强,预计A股IPO后核心一级资本充足率提高1.47pcts,监管安全边际和风险抵御能力将进一步提高。

若不考虑公司A股IPO的影响,我们预计公司2019/2020年归母净利润增速分别为17.89%和15.67%,EPS分别为1.07/1.24元/股。当前收盘价对应2019/2020年PE分别为3.62X/3.13X,PB分别为0.49X/0.43X。公司近2年动态PB估值中枢0.66倍,我们按照2019年0.66倍PB估算,合理价值为4.78HKD/股,给予“买入”评级。

风险提示:1、重庆地区经济超预期下滑,导致资产质量风险暴露超预期;2、县域存款竞争加剧,存款成本大幅上升

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