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大和:油价攀升利好上游油企 中海油(0883.HK)及中石油(0857.HK)属首选
格隆汇 09-17 15:49

格隆汇9月17日丨大和发表报告指,沙特阿拉伯石油生产设施在9月14日遭遇无人机及导弹袭击,预计将对全球石油供应造成重大影响,因有关受损设施导致每日石油生产减少约570万桶,占全球每日供应量的5%。而布兰特原油价格在9月16日大幅上涨11.3%至每桶67美元,为逾十年以来最大单日升幅。

该行相信,近期的不明朗性将支持油价表现,而油价上涨幅度及可持续性,取决于沙特阿拉伯能否在短期内恢复石油生产。据行业专家估计,更换烧毁的管道或需时数天至约两周,至于维修/更换船只或可能需要长达六个月。此外,不明朗性在于政治局势紧张会否恶化,及是否还会有无人机和导弹攻击。
大和表示,在主要中资油气企业中,中石油(0857.HK)及中海油(0883.HK)为该行首选,其中中海油对油价有最大的杠杆作用,股价相关性高达0.86,在油价上涨的情况下,中海油股价将有更大的上升空间。而且中海油的成本控制亦保持严格,并在中国主要同业中拥有最低的所有成本(今年上半年为每桶28.99美元)。至于中石油,其目前估值相当于明年市账率0.5倍,对上一次低见此水平,为于2016年布兰特油价跌至每桶35美元以下。
另外,该行认为,若地区紧张局势加剧且油价维持强劲,油服公司亦将成为勘探及生产活动增加的主要受惠者。行业中,安东油服(3337.HK)目前正寻求中国国内和伊拉克市场的新订单,而宏华(0196.HK)也料可见其陆地钻机和零部件的勘探生产需求增加,两企同为该行的行业首选。
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