《大行報告》大和:油價攀升利好上游油企 中海油及中石油屬首選
大和發表報告指,沙特阿拉伯石油生產設施在9月14日遭遇無人機及導彈襲擊,預計將對全球石油供應造成重大影響,因有關受損設施導致每日石油生產減少約570萬桶,佔全球每日供應量的5%。而布蘭特原油價格在9月16日大幅上漲11.3%至每桶67美元,為逾十年以來最大單日升幅。
該行相信,近期的不明朗性將支持油價表現,而油價上漲幅度及可持續性,取決於沙特阿拉伯能否在短期內恢復石油生產。據行業專家估計,更換燒毀的管道或需時數天至約兩周,至於維修/更換船隻或可能需要長達六個月。此外,不明朗性在於政治局勢緊張會否惡化,及是否還會有無人機和導彈攻擊。
大和表示,在主要中資油氣企業中,中石油(00857.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)為該行首選,其中中海油對油價有最大的槓桿作用,股價相關性高達0.86,在油價上漲的情況下,中海油股價將有更大的上升空間。而且中海油的成本控制亦保持嚴格,並在中國主要同業中擁有最低的所有成本(今年上半年為每桶28.99美元)。至於中石油,其目前估值相當於明年市賬率0.5倍,對上一次低見此水平,為於2016年布蘭特油價跌至每桶35美元以下。
另外,該行認為,若地區緊張局勢加劇且油價維持強勁,油服公司亦將成為勘探及生產活動增加的主要受惠者。行業中,安東油服(03337.HK)目前正尋求中國國內和伊拉克市場的新訂單,而宏華(00196.HK)也料可見其陸地鑽機和零部件的勘探生產需求增加,兩企同為該行的行業首選。
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