中金:沙特石油设施遇袭 料油价仍有每桶6至8美元上行风险
原油价格暴涨,纽约10月期油升8.05美元或14.7%,收报62.9美元,为2008年9月22日以来最大单日升幅;布兰特11月期油升8.8美元或14.6%,收报69.02美元。就9月14日沙特阿拉伯两处石油设施遭遇无人机袭击,关停500万桶/天供应,引发市场对全球原油供应担忧。中金发表报告表示,沙特两处遇袭设备分别为Abqaiq原油加工厂以及Khurais油田,其中,Khurais是沙特阿拉伯第二大油田所在地,日产能145万桶;Abqaiq原油设备为石油处理中心,全球最大油田Ghawar(产量380万桶/天)的原油也是途径此处再前往出口终端。
该行认为,当前沙特供应关停是预防性的主动关停,绝大部分供应或能在短期内尽快恢复。按照沙特官方表态,本次产量关停为遇袭後的预防式措施,如後续风险消散,或能在48小时内(最早於9月16日)将产量恢复至增产水平。
中金预计,即便供应尽快复产,当前油价仍有将有6至8美元/桶上行风险,指即便尽快复产,沙特9月份供应也已受较大影响。9月14日遇袭後,沙特供应减产500万桶/天,即便周一复产,整体供应减量也将能够达到1,000万桶至1,500万桶。
该行指,中东地缘政治风险再起,亚洲预防式需求推升风险溢价。随着沙特原油设备遇袭,中东地区的地缘政治风险再度升温,伊朗、沙特的供应风险将长期存在。沙特的700万桶/天出口中,超过60%为出口至亚洲,其中,8月份出口至中国、印度、日本、韩国原油量分别为160万桶/天、100万桶/天、90万桶/天、70万桶/天。
中金认为,如果沙特断供不能如期复产,对油价影响可能超预期,具体影响还需要根据未来事态演变来判断,但预计不会长时间持续。
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