永利澳门(1128.HK)：2019年第3季度EBITDA有望达到我们预期，维持“中性“评级，目标价15.70港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：中性
目标价：15.70港元
永利澳门（以下简称"公司"）的母公司永利度假村（WYNNUS）在9月11日发布了一份公告，其中披露了公司在2019年第3季度前2个月的预期收入和EBITDA。该公告并非盈利预警，而是披露了公司的控股股东WynnResorts两间附属公司定向发行优先无抵押票据的情况。
与整体的澳门市场一致，公司预计2019年第3季度的娱乐场收益及经调整后的物业EBITDA将因中美的持续贸易争端及香港的社会政治局势干扰导致贵宾博彩转码数大幅减少而受到不利影响。此外，尽管7月和8月的贵宾总赢额占转码数百分比在2.7%至3.0%的预期范围内，但该期间异常低的直接贵宾业务赢率对EBITDA造成了不利影响。但好的方面是，公司预计贵宾博彩业绩将被中场赌台投注额及角子机投注额的持续增长所部分抵消。
根据该公告，公司7月与8月的总收入预期将同比减少12.0%至12.2%，好于我们目前对公司收入在2019年第3季度同比下降15.1%的预测。根据该公告，公司7月与8月的总收入预计为10.1亿美元至11.2亿美元，而2018年同期为11.5亿美元；此数据意味着收入同比减少12.0%至12.2%，好于我们最近对公司2019年第3季度收入为11.13亿美元，同比下降15.1%的预测。
根据该公告，公司在7月及8月的标准化赢率下经调整物业EBITDA预期将同比减少15.6%至24.0%，与我们对此数据将在2019年第3季度同比下降22.9%的预期一致。根据该公告，7月与8月的预期经调整物业EBITDA为2.25亿美元至2.48亿美元，比去年同期的3.394亿美元同比下降26.9%至33.7%。
然而，公司估计2019年7月与8月低于正常水平的中场赌台赢率对经调整物业EBITDA带来了约0.3-0.35亿美元的负面影响，而去年同期此项数据为约400万美元的正面影响。去除运气因素后，公司7月与8月的标准化赢率下经调整物业EBITDA合计为2.55亿美元至2.83亿美元，同比下降15.6%至24.0%。该增长率与我们最近对公司2019年第3季度经调整物业EBITDA将同比下降22.9%至3.155亿美元的预测一致。
我们维持公司15.70港元的目标价与“中性”的投资评级。我们对行业与公司的展望与我们最近在9月6日发布的公司报告一致
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