万洲国际 (0288.HK )：中美贸易摩擦有所趋缓，美国生猪期货价格大幅上涨，维持“买入”评级
机构：招银国际
评级：买入
目标价：9.20港元
有消息指中国将对一定数量进口美国猪肉排除额外关税，美国生猪期货价格上周五大幅上涨。基于中国生猪短缺及美国猪肉价格较中国猪肉价格呈大幅折让，我们预期中国将于4Q19进口更多美国猪肉，对美国肉价及生猪价格带来支持。
美国生猪期货价格大幅上涨。多起消息显示中美贸易摩擦有所趋缓，美国2019年10月份生猪期货价格上周五上涨6%(过去两个交易日累涨11%)。
(1) 9月13日，新华社报导中方支援企业按照市场化原则和WTO规则，自美采购一定数量大豆、猪肉等，国务院关税税则委员会将对上述采购予以加征关税排除﹔
(2) 9月12日，商务部指中方企业开始对美国农产品进行询价﹔
(3) 美国农业部报导中国于截至9月5日止一周购买了10,878吨美国猪肉，是2019年5月以来最大宗采购﹔
(4) 路透社报导中美官员将于本周会面讨论贸易议题。
中国生猪及母猪存栏数于8月份大幅下跌。根据农业农村部数据，8月份生猪及母猪存栏数同比分别下跌38.7%(7月份跌32.2%)及37.4%(7月份跌31.9%)，我们估算8月份环比跌幅分别为10%及9%。由于7月份环比跌幅为9%，显示猪只存栏数大跌情况暂未改善。基于从增加母猪存栏数到生猪出栏需时约18个月，我们估计4Q19及2020年生猪价格仍然高企。
预期4Q19表现较好。我们认为排除加征关税及贸易摩擦有所趋缓对公司利好，基于现时美国生猪价格及白条肉价格较国内价格分别折让约59%及69%，而在8月23日中方宣布于9月1日实施加征进口美国猪肉5-10%关税前，美国生猪价格及白条肉价格较国内价格折让分别只有约4%及54%。基于国内氐猪供应短缺及美国猪肉价格较国内折让大，我们预期中国将于4Q19采购更多美国猪肉，将支持美国猪肉及生猪价格。
维持买入。我们的SOTP基准的目标价维持在9.20港元，对应FY19E14.3倍市盈率。
催化剂﹕中国降低美国进口猪肉关税或增加采购美国猪肉。风险﹕肉制品及屠宰业务利润率低于预期。
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