复盘苹果产业链黄金十年，看华为产业链投资机会
机构：国泰君安
科技股有望迎来长期投资价值。我们认为核心逻辑主要包括三点：
1）中美贸易摩擦背景下，科技企业开始加快自主核心零部件替换；
2）19年以来核心科技股赚钱效应明显，5G加速行情催化；
3）当前公募基金对科技股的配置占比创近6年新低，后续存在提升空间。
科技股当前盈利基数很低，综合半导体行业周期见底、运营商资本开支出现拐点、消费电子行业景气度持续三大因素，科技行业有望重新进入景气度向上周期，公募基金配置有望上升。进入5G时代后，以华为为首的国内自主品牌企业迎来弯道超车机会。因此，我们通过复盘苹果产业链的黄金十年，对未来如何投资华为产业链给出一定的指引思路，从中挖掘出确定性较高的投资机会。
苹果产业链黄金十年复盘。从投资时间顺序来看，各产业链环节并无先后关系。第一阶段呈现普涨格局，投资对象主要受估值推动，标的稀缺度、与概念相关度等因素直接决定对资金的吸引程度。第二阶段主要挑选好赛道，资金开始对标的基本面进行挖掘，股价与业绩相关度开始提升，赛道短期没有天花板压制的公司更易脱颖而出。第三阶段边际资金参与度大幅下降，个股定价趋于理性，基本与业绩保持同步，业绩持续释放的公司更受资本市场青睐，最终能走出独立行情。
华为产业链分析。华为全球供应商中，软件与服务、半导体设计、生产服务、电子装备等行业供应商数量相对较多，其中大部分核心供应商来自国外。而在国内A股上市公司中，共有27家公司来自华为的收入占其营业收入比例超过10%。在产业链环节中，集成电路设计、存储芯片、PCB、连接器和光模块5个子行业的市场空间相对较大，增速较快。
5G时代下，通信建设、智能手机以及物联网、车联网等应用将带来广阔的成长空间。华为产业链受益方向。华为三大业务均已具备全球竞争力，相关产业链公司将迎来巨大的投资机会。从消费者业务来看，5G手机推出将开启新篇章，屏幕、电池、摄像头、天线等企业受益明显。从运营商业务来看，从前期的网络规划，到建设端的核心零部件，再到传输及系统集成，都将充分受益。从企业业务来看，云计算的快速发展为相关产业链公司开辟新的成长空间，芯片相关核心部件进口替代不断加速，光模块领域相关标的受益确定性较高。
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