华润啤酒(0291.HK)：喜力收购助高端化转型，磨合期过后为收成期，目标价42.7港元
机构：辉立证券
目标价：42.7港元
投资概要
华润啤酒2019财年中期收入按年增7.2%至188.25亿元人民币（下同），纯利增长24.1%至18.71亿元。毛利率虽面临原材料成本上涨压力，但由於产品结构优化，按年改善1.9个百分点至37.8%。
期内收入增幅主要由於中高端啤酒销量按年增7%，拉动整体啤酒销量及平均价格分别增2.6%及4.5%，主要受惠於市场消费升级，润啤品牌重塑战略，产品结构进一步提升，以及收购喜力中国後的贡献。整体啤酒销量增长表现，佳於行业水平，并佳於管理层原先年销量按年持平的目标。
润啤收购喜力中国的交易已於4月尾完成交割，该业务的贡献在上半财年对於整体财务表现影响不大，但其长期战略合作将为润啤在中国高端啤酒市场发展的一个重要机遇。管理层表示，与喜力的整合目前过程顺利，结果达到或略超预期。整合包括了团队、渠道及市场，26个省现有的渠道网络，都展开了喜力的上市。润啤其後会将整合速度加快，预计今年内完成整合，明年会进行进一步完善及优化。
我们预计，随着喜力中港业务的加入，有助进一步提升中高档业务的占比，2020至2021年有望提升至逾50%。2018年5元人民币（下同）以上的中高档产品占比达43%，较2017年39%有所提升。喜力2017年度录得税後净亏损6680万元人民币，2016年则录得税後净利润5130万元。亏损主要由於在营销费用的投入，产品缺乏渠道去消化，未能有效接触到终端消费群，预计被润啤收购整合後在此方面的情况将会有所改善。
上半财年受到加大广告投入及收购喜力中国影响，销售及分销费用占收入比率增0.8%至15.4%，而产能优化及组织再造，则导致了员工补偿及安置费用，加上2018年上半年一次性计提2017年度的年金费用，员工成本减少及减值下降影响，管理及一般费用占收入比率按年跌1.3个百分点至10.3%。
期内润啤停止营运1家啤酒厂，同时完成收购喜力中国後新增3家啤酒厂。截至今年6月尾，润啤在中国内地25个省市区营运80佳啤酒厂，年产能21600000千升。我们预计2020财年每股盈利为0.65元人民币，目标价提升至42.7港元，对应市盈率60倍。（现价截至2019年9月11日）
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