香港交易所(0388.HK):收购伦交所计划存未知数
机构:招商银行
9月11日,港交所意外公告,将收购伦敦证券交易所集团(LSE LN,未评级), 总作价约 300 亿英镑(约合 2,878 亿港元),但交易能否进行将以伦交所集团对 Refinitiv 的收购被否决或终止为先决条件。我们认为这一潜在收购将能够极大地 提升港交所的国际化程度、丰富收入来源,并将连接中国内地与世界的范畴提升 至更广阔的维度。但同时,我们认为交易进行的不确定性较高,同时作价较为昂贵。
交易估值及架构:交易作价相当于伦交所集团 2019年预测市盈率 42.5倍,远 高于其现在的估值 36.5 倍以及港交所现时估值的 29.7 倍。港交所将通过现金 (包括自有资金及新的借贷)以及发行新股予伦交所集团现有股东的形式支付 交易作价;新股发行完成后,伦交所集团股东将持有港交所约 41%的股份, 同时新发行的股份将寻求在伦交所做第二上市。
短期而言,战略意义大于财务贡献。如果交易能够完成,合并后的两家公司 目标成为全球领先的市场基础设施运营商,联通东方(特别是中国)及西方, 提供多种资产类别的产品及服务。伦交所集团的数据业务(特别是富时罗素指 数业务)及 FICC 业务将对港交所的收入结构形成互补,提升港交所在这两方 面的竞争力。此外,互联互通机制将有可能进一步向欧洲区域拓展。尽管长期 战略前景广阔,但我们认为短期而言,港交所的财务表现将存在压力,主要由 于 1)新股发行对盈利造成摊薄效应;2)伦交所集团自身的营运效率较港交 所为低;以及 3)港交所的债务负担将会加重,但与此同时,在合并后还将继 续保持 90%的高派息率。
前方充满挑战。1)有关收购 Refinitiv 的 不确定性。让伦交所集团放弃对 Refinitiv 的收购或许并不容易。伦交所集团在公告中称,他们仍将致力于推动 对 Refinitiv的收购并取得积极进展。伦交所集团的股价在公布对 Refinitiv的收 购之后飙升了 27%,显示市场对这一收购表示欢迎。2)地缘政治及监管的不 确定性。出于国家利益考虑,英国监管机构是否会允许港交所收购其主要金融 市场的运营商存在巨大的未知数,特别是在目前地缘政治风险加剧的情况下。
估值。港交所目前估值为 29.7 倍 2019 年预测市盈率,与其五年平均估值一 致。由于现时交易的不确定性大于长期利好,我们认为投资者对交易的态度可 能不会过分乐观。

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