美银美林:新地(0016.HK)业绩缺催化剂 降今财年股盈预测
美银美林发表研究报告,不预期新地(00016.HK)去年度的业绩表现有正面的催化作用,其每股盈利和派息都略逊预期,加上目前香港的政局仍然不稳定。目前公司的估值仍然吸引,但更看好防守性较强、净现金状态的信置(00083.HK),同时预期若政局回复稳定,新地股价会最受惠,重申新地“中性”评级,目标价125港元。
该行指,如果政府重启向发展商置换农地计划,新地亦会短期的额外盈利,但长期仍需视乎政府会否在收回的土地兴建资助出售房屋及公屋。
该行降新地2020-21年度每股盈利预期1-2%,以反映物业销售下调,管理层没有承诺保持派息,但即使每股盈利下降,仍会致力保持派息比率在40-50%。公司亦维持2020年度400亿元的销售目标,内地为75亿元。
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