港股中报分析：韧性或将是全年业绩的主旋律
机构：长江证券
报告要点
港股 2019H1 业绩增长保持韧性
港股市场 2019 年上半年业绩增速整体好于 2018 年下半年，表现出一定韧性。 2019H1恒生综指和恒生综指非金融净利润增速分别为3.6%/-4.4%，较 2018H2 分别提升了 16.6pct/5.6pct。内资股表现整体好于非内资股。且上半年业绩占全 年预期的比重基本合理。
财务拆分：营收正贡献而毛利率负贡献
收入是最大的正贡献项而毛利率是最大的负贡献项。恒生综指非金融 2019H1 净利润同比增速中有约 7.6%为营收的同比增长所贡献，较 2018H2 有 1.31pct 的小幅抬升，而毛利率水平则有-12.0%的贡献，负贡献程度小幅扩大 0.37pct， 营业开支占营业收入的比重有 6.9%的正贡献，其他收入则有-5.9%的贡献，所 得税也有-0.4%的贡献，但是负贡献程度较 2018H2 缩小了 5.56pct。
盈利能力稳中有升
港股市场 2019 年上半年 ROE 水平环比抬升，同比相对稳定。恒生综指 2019 年上半年 ROE 为 6.3%，较 2018H2 抬升了 1.62pct，与 2018H1 基本持平。
港股市场净利率水平也保持相对稳定。港股市场截至今年年中和截至去年年底 的滚动 12 个月净利率水平整体相近，恒生国企小幅上升 0.1pct，恒生指数有 0.31pct 的下降，恒生综指和恒生综指非金融分别小幅下降 0.06pct 和 0.28pct。
行业分析：大部分行业业绩向好，金融尤为突出
除上游外，其他板块净利润增速均有所上升。2019H1 除上游（-27.5pct）增速 出现下降外其他板块均明显上升，其中金融（+27.3pct）上升幅度最大，其次 为科技（+18.3pct） 。从增速绝对值来看，仅有金融和中游板块保持正增长，增 速分别为 11.1%和 4.6%，而上游（-9.5%）和下游（-8.0%）则有较大幅度的负 增长，科技板块（-1.5%）则为小幅负增长。
下半年港股业绩有望继续改善
上半年港股市场的业绩韧性主要来自于盈利能力的提升，而业绩韧性有望在下 半年继续保持，同时叠加低基数效应，港股市场的业绩增速有望在下半年进一 步上升。推荐关注业绩表现较好以及盈利与估值匹配程度较高的行业，包括食 品饮料与烟草、医疗保健设备与服务、保险、综合金融、运输等行业。
风险提示： 1. 当前已披露业绩的公司代表性不足； 2. 个股样本差异导致数据发生变化。
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