商业贸易电商服务系列之导购分析师-羊毛剪,种草机,电商导购的前世今生
机构：广发证券
核心观点：
电商导购：电商平台的牛椋鸟，小而美的流量补充
电商导购依附于交易平台而生，具备辅助用户完成网购决策、促成交易的功能。导购平台的核心价值是为用户 提供“薅羊毛”和“种草”的渠道，相应为品牌商提供低成本流量来源。生意核心在于流量聚集和变现的效率。 复盘国内，导购行业的变迁与电商巨头的诉求关系紧密：2006-2012 年线上流量红利充足，导购与电商行业一 同快速成长；2013-2014 年，逐渐壮大的导购威胁到下游电商的流量和利润而遭封杀，导购龙头纷纷转型自营或海 淘；2015 年至今，电商交易平台与导购平台的体量已然差距悬殊，电商巨头重新拥抱导购以丰富流量来源。 镜鉴美国市场，电商导购兴起于上世纪末，龙头主要有折扣（如 Slickdeals）、海淘（如 Ebates）、内容社交（如 Pinterest）三大延伸方向，分别为品牌商提供促销冲量、拓展国际市场、提高成交转化率的价值。
导购进化论：国内龙头的转型探索
从引流方式来看，由纯价格驱动转向添加内容社区或配套服务、扩大粘性用户群是行业主流选择；从变现方式 来看，坚持导购本职与自营商品打造产业链闭环是不同的发展路径，相应的财务经营表现和价值评估体系均有不同。 从头部平台发展历程来看：1）返利网等价格型玩家：折扣返利类业务盈利平稳但存在同质化竞争，不同平台通过引 入特卖、社交裂变等方式寻求用户增长。2）蘑菇街：转型自营&定制产品，all-in 直播，发力小程序引流，FY19 实 现 GMV174 亿元。3）宝宝树：浅尝垂直电商后，回归母婴社区内容运营。4）小红书：爆红于明星 KOL 短视频带 货，19 年 5 月注册用户达 2.5 亿，自营供应链完善尚需时日。5）值得买：3C 内容见长，经营稳健，18 年确认 GMV 达 102 亿元、ROE 32%，上市后具备扩张潜力。
投资建议：关注内容型平台的增长弹性和流量价值 流量的体量和粘性决定平台的长期价值。对于三类导购的投资机会：1）价格驱动型：竞争壁垒较低，发展受下 游限制程度最高，但有较好的现金流和盈利性，关注返利网、花生日记。2）内容驱动型：规避供应链风险，充分发 挥专注品类或客群的专业价值、塑造用户粘性，关注值得买。3）自建电商型：商业闭环带来更强的用户粘性和平台 独立性，但自建电商需要长期打磨供应链和平台管理，关注小红书和蘑菇街。
风险提示：流量争夺加剧，获客成本上扬；下游客户集中度高，核心客户的经营策略变动或引起导购平台收入 大幅波动；消费偏好变化，既有导购形式对用户的吸引力下降。
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