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汇丰研究:升中生制药(1177.HK)目标价至13.5港元 维持“买入”评级
格隆汇 09-09 16:06
汇丰研究发表的报告指,根据国家药品集中采购(GPO)扩张时间表,所有省份都需要在2020年上半年或之前实施,意味相关影响将会在2020年下半年体现。中生制药(1177.HK) 有七只产品包含在内,截至今年8月当中三只拥有三个或更多的合资格投标人,其余则有两个合资格投标人。虽然投资者对于公司在2020年纯利增长能否达到20%或以上存疑,该行考虑到集中采购上半年影响温和,认为仍有可能,相信2020-2021年七种集中采购药物将分别贡献54亿元人民币及39亿元人民币销售,毛利则分别为39亿元人民币及14亿元人民币。
该行指出肺癌药物安罗替尼(Anlotinib)势头强劲,而今年上半年主要仿制药的销售亦增长迅速,预期势头于2020年亦将持续,主要因为行业持续整合,而公司销售能力亦有改善。在新药方面,该行指引2019-2021年将分别推26、15及19只,而截至8月份已有15只获得了国家药品监督管理局批准上市或已推出市面,相信公司可完成今年全年目标。
该行将公司2019-21年收入预测上调3%、3%及7%,以反映来自药品集中采购以及新产品推出的影响,盈利预测分别上调2%、12%及6%,估计公司可透过控制行政及销售开支进一步改善经营盈利能力,目标价由9.4港元升至13.5港元,维持“ 买入 ”评级。
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