【计算机】以史为鉴复盘Oracle历史变迁和演进体系
机构:国泰君安
本报告导读: 通过复盘 Oracle 的发展历史,我们认为,软件行业建立的优势难以被超越,但大环 境的变化为后来者提供弯道超车的可能,云化和国产化是国产软件突破的重要契机
摘要:
投资建议:复盘 Oracle,我们发现软件行业一旦建立优势便很难被 打败,但当大环境发生改变时,后来者往往有超车的可能。目前云化 和国产替代是中国企业弯道超车的大逻辑。我们认为,用友、金蝶在 云时代弯道超车的概率较大。并有望通过并购不断地扩大和巩固已经 建立的领先地位。推荐标的:用友网络,金蝶国际。
软件行业一旦建立优势便很难被打败,但当大环境发生改变时,后来 者往往有超车的可能。三个原因导致领先者不易被超越:1)软件采 购人员往往会选择市场上最流行的一款 2)用户之间往往会相互讨 论,口口相传往往会放大缺点和优点 3)用户在经过一套软件的培训 之后往往不愿意使用另一套软件。互联网浪潮中 Oracle 抓住机会将 自己打造为“电子商务领域先锋”,电子商务新业态的一些功能 Oracle 比 SAP 早宣称能实现,在互联网时代占据了一些市场份额。
云化和国产替代是中国企业弯道超车的大逻辑。我们认为,用友、金 蝶想要抢占高端 ERP 市场,等待大环境的改变是最佳策略,而目前环 境改变主要有两个趋势,一是云化,二是国产化。在云化方面,我们 可以看到用友、金蝶都提出了全面转云策略,两家公司的云收入和占 比都持续保持在高位。国产化方面,目前政策大力支持,同时用友也 针对国产化展开主动的适配。
持续在自己擅长的领域发光发热,通过并购扩大领先优势是最优策 略。目前用友和金蝶都有清晰且明确的云战略,全力打磨云化 ERP 产 品,并积极开展与阿里云、华为云等的深层次合作。Oracle 在 21 世 纪初扩大领先方式主要通过不断收购潜在竞争对手,账上大量现金是 收购的保证。在云时代,ERP 的收费模式从 License 转向订阅制,优 化了企业的现金流。我们认为,用友、金蝶在云时代弯道超车的概率 较大。我们也看到用友的现金流出现边际改善,强大的现金流支撑为 公司将来可能的并购,巩固领先地位提供有利的保障。
风险提示:云业务发展不及预期,企业管理软件行业竞争加剧,国产 化推进进展不及预期
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.