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瑞银:料人行今年再降准50点子 不会减息
格隆汇 09-09 11:12

瑞银发表研究报告指,人民银行在上周五宣布降准50个基点,另外再额外对仅在省级行政区域内经营的城市商业银行定向下调存款准备金率100个基点。此项措施于上周召开国务院会议後公布,人行预料此次降准将释放9,000亿元人民币流动性。在最新的存款准备金率下调後,中国大型国企银行的标准存款准备金率将为13%,中型银行则为11%,其他小型银行7.5%。

该行原来预期在今年余下时间将会再降准100个基点,所以上周的公布对市场而言没有太大惊喜。虽然有部分投资者认为此项措施的公布时间比原来预期早,但此次降准能帮助银行每年减少150亿元人民币成本,有助于略为降低在实体经济的实际融资成本。

该行续维持人行将在今年内再降准50个基点的预期,2020料会降准100个基点,不预期会有任何基准贷款利率下调的可能,但随着美国减息,料人行会下调中期借贷便利利率10-15个基点。更多的流动性注入及货币宽松将会有助推动中国今明两年信贷增长超过11%,虽然此次的信贷复苏会比早前的宽松周期来得更温和。

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