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【互联网】行业上半年汇总与展望:头部市值洗牌,平台经济估值提振
格隆汇 09-09 09:16

机构:华创证券

 市场走势回顾: 

 上周(190902-190906),上证综指上涨 3.93%,深证成指上涨 4.89%,创业板 指上涨5.05%,中小板指上涨5.01%,标普500上涨1.85%,恒生指数上涨3.76%, 纳斯达克指数上涨 1.63 %。

 上周行业看点:互联网巨头市值大洗牌,美团点评、拼多多市值大幅提升, 消费与交易型平台释放经济价值。  

 随着各个互联网公司半年报发布结束,互联网头部平台也迎来了市值的重新 洗牌,TOP 5 排名重新改写。截止 9 月 6 日美股收盘,排名前五的互联网公司 为:阿里巴巴(4600 亿美元)、腾讯控股(4187 亿美元)、美团点评(546 亿美元)、京东(453 亿美元)、拼多多(407 亿美元)。对比 2018 年年底 市值排名,百度与小米跌出前五,而美团与拼多多凭借持续强劲增长的 GMV、 收入、活跃买家,驱动市值一路上扬,杀进互联网头部前五。截止 9 月 6 日, 2019 年美团点评涨幅达到 67%%,拼多多涨幅超过 60%。 

 纵观 TOP5 互联网公司,除了腾讯之外,阿里巴巴、美团点评、京东与拼多多, 皆为面向 C 端的消费与交易型平台,在零售与本地生活服务领域,凭借效率 与科技基础,对产业链进行整合,为 C 端用户提供更好的体验、更高性价比 的服务与产品。而几家平台在今年上半年的爆发则源于需求侧消费结构的多元 化,对沉睡的下沉市场以及欠发达地区的开发,供给侧对以往分散、多层级、 低效的供应链的整合,以及物流与仓储的增效。 

 而内容消费及广告行业则表现平淡,智能终端、AI、无人驾驶等科技布局,似 乎也未受到市场认可。以智能硬件为核心业务的小米,自年初起,截止 9 月 6 日,股价跌幅达到 30%,而致力于 AI、无人驾驶等布局的百度则受到搜索业务 下滑的影响,股价跌幅达到 37%,两家公司皆跌出 TOP5,而微博、爱奇艺、 哔哩哔哩等依靠广告与内容消费的互联网公司,也有不同程度的下滑。

 投资策略 :我们认为移动电商与服务平台满足了消费结构的多元化,从而带 来了第三波的消费人口增量,而与以往几个互联网零售消费浪潮不一样的地 方则在于这次互联网平台凭借供给侧对以往分散、多层级、低效的供应链的 整合,以及物流与仓储的增效,实现了对 B 端行业的改造。

建议关注: 阿里巴巴(BABA.N)、拼多多(PDD.O)、美团点评(3690.HK )

 风险提示:行业投入不达预期、竞争加剧风险、市场准入壁垒。 

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