中国金茂(00817.HK)：高土储低负债，赋予未来发展潜力
机构：国泰君安
中国金茂(00817.HK)2019年上半年收入同比减少33%至至147.41亿元，主要是城市及物业开发项目的收入较上年同期减少所致。所有者应占溢利为36.97亿元，同比增长12%，若扣除投资物业公平值收益(已扣除递延税项)，公司所有者应占溢利为32.81亿元，同比增长4%。派发中期股息每股12港仙。
拥有高质量土储的同时仍保持低负债。截至7月底，中国金茂总土储达6,998万方，其中85%位于一二线城市。其中二级开发土储总建面为4,905万平米(权益比约55%)，总货值在1万亿元以上，一二线城市占比约90%；一级开发土储储备约2,092万平米(权益比约74%)。负债方面，截至中期，中国金茂净负债率为67%，相较去年末略有下降。平均借贷成本为4.96%，体现央企优势。
派息稳定，业绩增长仍有保证。中国金茂中期保持派发核心盈利的40%作为股息，派息率高且稳定。截至上半年，中国金茂物业及土地已签约未交付结算的金额约为1,766亿元。虽然因为部分项目地价较高等因素的影响，预计未来物业开发毛利率水平将会出现一定程度的下跌，但可结转金额较为充足，以及其他收入(出让部分项目股权收益)的存在，业绩增长依旧可期。
混改稳步推进。中国金茂进一步混改之后，中化集团持股比例降至35.1%(保持单一最大控股股东)，平安集团持股比例为15.2%(长期财务投资)，新华保险持股比例为9.2%。未来平安与新华将协同旗下资源，助力金茂未来的发展。
销售增速强劲。中国金茂2019年上半年，合约销售额达784.6亿元，剔除2018年上海星外滩大宗交易的影响，同比增速为79%。目前项目去化率约为65%左右，2019-2020年完成1,500亿元及2,000亿元的销售目标压力不大，同比增长可达17%与33%。
估值上，彭博市场预计19/20年年EPS为为0.56/0.71港元，现价对应应19/20年预测市盈率为7.7/6.0倍，预计19/20年股息率为5.5%/6.9%。近期市场预计每股NAV区间为为8.37-11.26，港元，NAV折让区间为25%-50%。彭博市场平均目标价为5.97港元，潜在上升空间约为为28%。我们看好公司中长期的发展，于年初将中国金茂加入到高息股组合中，至今涨幅为35.6%。
风险：商品房销售疲弱，政策调控加码，经济下滑等。
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