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《大行报告》高盛降友邦(01299.HK)目标价至94元 重申「确信买入」名单
阿思达克 09-06 15:21

高盛发表报告指出,早前发表的报告主要针对现时香港的情况对友邦保险(01299.HK)潜在盈利的影响,但并无谈具体的影响或时间点,但该行认为友邦在不同的场景下,盈利下行空间亦有限,但料香港新业务价值或受影响,特别是向内地客方面的销售,而对友邦而言海外客户(特别是内地客)占2018年新业务价值的66%。

该行表示,将友邦今年下半年新业务价值预测下调12%,以反映香港销售放慢的影响,意味全年新业务价值预测亦将削5%,该行同时将友邦今年纯利预测下调14%,以反映股票投资亏损的影响,决定将其目标价由98元降至94元,重申为「确信买入」名单。

高盛指出,友邦股价已自七月高位下跌14%,同期恒指跌幅约为11%,该行估计了额外两个情况下的影响,一个情况是内地客停止自2020年起来港投保,另一情况是若续保变得困难,内地投保人决定放弃所有现有保单。该行的分析显示两个情况将带来19-23%的负面影响,而公司股价跌幅亦已反映内地客来港投保大跌七成的影响。但该行相信,只要香港人寿保险保费仍较内地相同产品便宜,以及香港保单继续以美元计价,相关情景发生的可能性很微。

另外,高盛认为友邦100%持有其中国运作公司,有助转移香港保单销售减慢的影响,而友邦中国亦在内地七个较富有的市场点,相在保障类产品中亦是重要的参与者,相信即使客户决定由境外转向境内,仍能捕足相关的需求。 ~

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