花长春：降息降准箭在弦上、逆周期持续超预期
作者：国君宏观花长春团队
来源：宏观长春
导 读
专项债、降息（OMO政策利率）、降准（普降、定向）三箭齐发，超市场预期，彰显决策层“六稳”决心。
正 文
1、逆周期调控力度超预期。
此次国常会明确提出三个核心政策，一是提前下达明年专项债部分新增额度，确保明年初即可使用见效，并扩大使用范围；二是加快落实降低实际利率水平的措施；三是及时运用普遍降准和定向降准等政策工具。市场对降息和专项债有一定预期，但三个政策一同推出，超市场预期，也彰显了决策层“六稳”决心。
2、从8月31日金稳委会议到昨天国常会，我们理解货币、财政配合来维稳，至少包含两层政策思路。
第一，加大对制造业支持力度，重点在降低其融资成本。制造业企业的中长期贷款有望进一步获得定向降息，不排除贷款利率下降100个基点。第二，加大对基建投资需求的支持。今年年初以来，基建投资掣肘很多，增速萎靡不振，财政将通过专项债，货币将通过流动性（降准）来共同提振基建投资需求。
3、政策目标就是推动实际利率水平明显下降。
总理在8月16日国常会上提到，通过改革，推动实际利率水平明显降低。但是，8月20日LPR机制改革，利率下降幅度有限。此次国常会再提降息，进一步明确了决策层降息意图。我们预期下一步有望下调OMO政策利率。
4、基建逐步回升，经济企稳可期。
通过提前下达专项债额度，基建增速有望提升。此次会议不仅呼应了8月31日金稳委会议所提到的，“加大宏观经济政策的逆周期调节力度”，而且也让我们真正理解“金融部门继续做好支持地方政府专项债发行相关工作”这一表述的政策含义。我们认为本次国常会提到的普遍降准，即是配合的举措之一。同时，国常会不仅要求今年限额内专项债要在10月底前全部拨付到项目上，形成实物工作量；而且要求提前下达额度的专项债资金，重点用于铁路、轨交、电网等基础设施，稳增长意图明显。
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