天伦燃气(01600.HK)：低渗透率，高增长空间
机构：国泰君安
2019年年上半年业绩回顾：收入同比大幅增加65.9%至31.5亿元人民币；毛利同比增加66.6%至8.3亿元,毛利率因结构变化微升0.1pp至至26.3%;每股基本盈利升86.4%至0.41元。若剔除汇兑亏损等项目的影响，则公司核心利润同比升67.8%，中期派息11.42分，同比增加113.1%，派息率28.0%。
上半年业绩亮眼：若剔除汇兑亏损和处置子公司所产生损益的影响（含处置重庆天伦凯达新能源燃气有限公司70%权益的净损失1071.8万元），则公司核心利润同比升67.8%至4.4亿元；由于河南煤改气新完工20万户，上半年应收账款增加5.3亿元，预计款项将于7-8月到账，下半年将恢复正常。
新增工程安装业务贡献22%收入。从主营业务来看,城燃销售/长输管道燃气输送及销售/管道接驳业务收入分别上升36.1%/39%/3.2%至13.9/6.0/4.1亿元。公司新增工程设计及安装业务贡献收入6.9亿元，占总收入21.8%。管理层表示业内认为单户接驳费2800-3000元较为合理，而公司单户接驳费在2600元左右可以持续。
煤改气用户快速增长。公司于去年十一月收购河南驻马店市燃气项目，目前已经完成全面接管和并表。上半年新增14.1万户城燃住宅用户、25万户河南乡镇煤改气用户以及1152户工商业用户。另外，公司上半年获得河南省郏县和淅川县部分乡镇的管道燃气特许经营权项目，将支持下半年用户数保持增长。
展望
2019年公司预计全年天然气销量预计同比增加25%，其中内生增长将带动销量增加超过20%，销气毛差维持稳定，追加资本开支3亿元。另外，公司于今年上半年被纳入恒生综合指数成分股以及港股通，受到资金关注。天伦燃气(1600.HK)8月29日收市价报7.80港元，目前市场平均目标价为12.09元，潜在上升空间55.0%。19/20年市场预期市盈率7.8/6.3倍,市场预期EPS增速56.4%/24.3%。
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