申洲国际( 2313.HK )： 复盘针织隐形冠军成长之路，给予“买入”评级
机构：长江证券
评级：买入
报告要点
纵向一体化针织制造冠军，估值三上台阶
申洲国际前身为宁波北仑区政府筹建的宁波申洲织造，05年在港股上市。作为中国最具规模的纵向一体化针织制造商，核心客户包括以Nike、adidas、PUMA等在内的优质运动品牌以及UNIQLO为代表的休闲品牌客户，销售范围逐步从日本扩张至欧美及亚太区域，连续多年名列中国针织服装出口企业出口规模第一。同时，公司基于持续的品类升级、深度的客户绑定实现了从普通制造、优质制造向稀缺制造的升级，不断巩固针织龙头地位，在08年金融危机后估值表现三上台阶，16年以来PE估值中位数水平提升至26倍。
关注点之一：如何规避经营周期实现持续增长？
传统制造企业经营受产能周期以及库存周期影响较大，而申洲国际借助布局优质赛道、绑定核心客户以及全球化产能布局等方式强化竞争优势，逐步成长为具备订单筛选能力的优质供应商，实现增长动力由订单驱动向产能驱动的转化。从成长的角度来看，运动用品行业增长红利仍存，一方面申洲在核心客户的订单份额仍有提升空间，另一方面头部运动品牌服装品类占比偏低、后续有望提升；此外，中国运动消费渗透率仍低，新品牌订单空间大。
关注点之二：如何控制风险敞口平滑业绩波动？
传统制造企业特别是出口导向型企业短期经营的风险集中于原材料和汇率波动。申洲平滑原材料价格波动的措施包括：（1）借助全产业链布局强化流程管控和成本消化能力；（2）与上游紧密合作，优化产能布局强化业务匹配度的同时，外部化原材料管控职能。平滑汇率波动的措施包括：（1）扩建海外生产基地，匹配客户全球化采购需求；（2）增加外币资本开支、外币借款等以收缩外汇风险敞口，并借助衍生金融工具进行套保操作；（3）切入头部品牌企业供应链体系，汇率风险敞口进一步收窄。在压缩盈利扰动项的同时，持续加大面料研发从而增强产品附加值和客户粘性，支撑毛利率改善。
“三好”原则打造核心壁垒
申洲国际之所以能享受稀缺制造估值溢价，核心在于解决了市场对于经营周期及风险敞口两方面的担忧、强化稳增长能力。复盘申洲国际发展历史，我们简单总结了筛选优质供应商的“三好”原则：好的赛道扩大市场空间、好的能力决定市场份额、好的客户影响盈利能力。看好公司专注运动针织领域，借助面料升级和产能结构优化实现优质客户强绑定的经营策略，预计2019年、2020年实现归母净利润51.53亿、61.40亿，对应EPS为3.43元、4.08元，对应PE为27.9倍、23.4倍。首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
风险提示：1、新增产能投产进度不及预期的风险；2、海外投资环境变化的风险。
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