中国食品(00506.HK) :强大的创新能使品牌历久弥新,给予“买入“评级,目标价4.30港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:买入
目标价:4.30港元
收入稳健增长,盈利能力大幅改善。2019年上半年公司收入同比增长9.8%至人民币95.51亿元,销售量增长8%。汽水和瓶装水销售分别同比增长9.5%和21.0%。由于平均售价上升,包装结构改善和增值税的下调,公司毛利率录得同比0.5个百分点的增长至35.5%。由于经营效率改善,公司分销费用占比同比降低1.0个百分点。除去2018年上半年公司获得来自可口可乐的人民币52百万元的补偿收入,经我们调整中国食品2019年上半年核心EBIT同比增长32.4%。中国食品2019年上半年报告股东净利同比增长15.0%至人民币2.90亿元,好于预期。
量价齐升。作为市场领导者,可口可乐致力于通过引入更多低糖产品和小包装产品来领导行业消费升级。因此中国食品的产品结构改善明显。2019年上半年中国食品仍然从快速增长的碳酸饮料市场获得市场份额的增长。公司2元水取得相当惊艳的销售增长。中国食品实现供应链和新收购瓶装厂效率的提升。公司新品的表现值得期待。
我们预计公司可以实现其2019年收入增长低双位数的指引。基于可口可乐的强大创新力,公司将继续改善产品组合。我们认为中国食品收入增长和盈利能力增强的可见度较高。因此我们上调投资评级至上调投资评级至“买入”,上调目标价至4.30港元,于相当于23.9倍、21.4倍和19.0倍倍2019年、2020年和2021年市盈率。

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