《大行報告》麥格理料本港經濟續惡化明年中始見底 地產股不宜太早「撈底」
麥格理發表研究報告指,對於示威者不滿特首林鄭月娥宣布將撤回《逃犯條例》修訂案的反應,並不感到驚訝,因過去兩個月林鄭沒有回應訴求,示威者暴力已升級,並堅持「五大訴求,決一不可」,但現時林鄭僅回應一個訴求,而中央官員近日已明確地排除成立獨立委員會的機會。
報告指,特首今次讓步可達到兩個目的,包括:「橄欖枝」已在和理非及勇武派之間劃出距離,以及合理化警方對暴力示威者使用更大警力。不過,該行此前對派出解放軍及大規模罷課和罷工的憂慮已緩解。認為今次讓步是一個戰略手段,而不應該被視為當局作出結構式轉變。
該行展望香港未來,不幸地要回復經濟增長可能需要更長時間,預料經濟持續惡化及2020年中才走出谷底。現階段不宜「撈底」地產股。不過如果想部署買入地產股的投資者,該行則建議長實集團(01113.HK),目標價95.19元,評級「跑贏大市」;收租股方面則建議恆隆地產(00101.HK),目標價23.96元,評級「跑贏大市」。
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