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《大行報告》美銀美林料港府撤修例對樓市買家輕微正面 看淡寫字樓前景
阿思達克 09-05 11:31

美銀美林發表報告,港府昨宣布正式撤回逃犯修訂條例草案,本港地產股昨率先強勁反彈,該行期望地產股估值在今次危機下已見最壞時刻,但相信未來走勢仍會波動,行業基本因素復甦仍需要時間。

該行指,在本港地產行業中喜歡物業發展股份,因供應有限及需求穩固,在發展商中喜歡業務多元化的長實集團(01113.HK)及現金流充裕的信和置業(00083.HK),但該行最不喜愛寫字樓股份,因全球經濟面臨放緩,決定維持置地(HKL.SP)「跑輸大市」評級,下調對冠君(02778.HK)評級由「中性」降至「跑輸大市」,削目標價19%至5.5元,並降太古地產(01972.HK)評級至「中性」,指在防守性股份中喜愛領展(00823.HK)及港鐵(00066.HK)。

美銀美林表示,調低對地產股於2019年至2021年每股盈利預測平均2%至8%,並下調本港地產股目標價,因料本港今年年底的住宅樓價(基本情境預測),會由年內高位至年底回落10%(全年料跌2%),並估計明年第一季會進一步轉弱、料明年下半年將回穩,料明年全年樓價按年持平。

該行下調長實集團目標價由65元降至64元,微降信置目標價至12.9元,將新地(00016.HK)目標價由128元降至125元,維持「中性」投資評級。

該行認為港府正式撤回逃犯修訂條例草案對樓市買家的影響屬中性至輕微正面,並預期港府會持續增加土地供應。而該行估計中環寫字樓租金(基本情境預測)明年將回落一成。

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