民生银行(01988.HK)：净利润增速不及股份行同业，维持“持有”评级，目标价5.9港元
机构：招商银行
评级：持有
目标价：5.9港元
8月30日，民生银行公布2019年上半年业绩，净利润同比增长6.8%至316亿元人民币，占我们/市场一致预期全年净利润预测的60.4%/61.2%。二季度经营收入增长强劲，同比增速达到15.1%，主要由于净利息收入及净手续费收入同比都保持了良好的增长势头，增速分别为29.6%及8.1%。经营支出同比持平，拨备前利润同比增幅达到20.0%。不过，信用减值损失同比大增37.6%，将净利润增速拖低至7.9%（一季度为5.7%）；这一增速高于五大行平均增幅的5.2%，但明显低于上市股份行平均增速的11.2%。
业绩正面因素：1）二季度净息差环比提升3个基点至1.87%（未经调整），主要由于流动性宽松背景下，同业资金成本下降。民生银行的同业负债（包括同业存单）占总负债的比例为30.7%。同时，贷款收益率较年初提升12个基点，幅度大于存款成本上升的8个基点，主要由于信用卡及地产开发贷的增速（上半年分别增长6.0%及18.7%）高于贷款总额增速（上半年增长4.2%）。
2）低上半年成本收入比同比降低3.3个百分点至22.1%，一般运营及行政支出同比下降8.4%，抵消了人工成本同比上升11.3%带来的影响。3）存款较年初增长8.4%，高于贷款同期增速的4.2%；贷存比因此较年初下降3.8个百分点至92.2%。4）资本充足率较年初提升106个基点，尽管核心一级资本充足率下降3个基点，主要由于该行上半年发行了400亿元人民币二级资本债及400亿元人民币永续债。
业绩负面因素：1）资产质量指标依然落后于同业。二季度不良贷款余额环比增长1.1%，不良贷款率为1.75%，环比持平，是我们覆盖银行中的最高水平。拨备覆盖率环比提升4.5个百分点至142.3%，但依然低于板块的平均值190.6%。不良贷款对逾期90天以上贷款的比率为104.7%。如果银保监会推行更严格的不良确认标准（如将逾期60天以上贷款纳入不良），民生银行将面临更多压力。2）存款结构薄弱，活期存款占比较年初下降4.4个百分点至36.5%。
维持「持有」评级，下调目标价至5.9港元。民生银行目前的估值为0.45倍2019年预测市帐率，较其自身五年历史平均值0.58倍低22%。我们保持盈利预测不变，但将目标价由6.2港元下调至5.9港元，主要由于我们将权益成本（COE）假设提升至16.8%以及将港元对人民币汇率假设调整至0.897。
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