希望教育(01765.HK)：1H19业绩良好，预期FY20-21E每股盈利年均增长31%，维持“买入”评级，目标价1.96港元
机构：招商银行
评级：买入
目标价：1.96港元
1H19业绩良好，经调整凈利润同比增长34%，毛利率同比改善了3.8个百分点。公司公布以14.5亿人民币收购银川多所学校100%权益，我们预期该收购将驱动公司FY20-21E增长，希望教育仍是我们行业首选。
1H19业绩优于预期。经调整凈利润同比增长34%至2.56亿人民币，相当于我们FY19E全年预测的57%(1H18经调整凈利润只占全年的54%)。收入增长13%，动力来自14%的学生人数增长。由于成本控制得宜，毛利率令人惊喜地提升3.8个百分点至53.1%，经营费用率下跌9.4个百分点至13.6%，主要是股票认购权及上市费用减少。财务费用下跌31%。
收购银川多所学校。集团公布以14.5亿人民币(5.5亿人民币收购100%股权、4亿人民币承担债务、5.5亿人民币用作竞投新校区固定资产)收购银川多所学校100%权益(能源大学及其他五所学校)。该等学校总学生人数15,108人，FY18收入及凈利润分别为2.01亿人民币及3,000万人民币。管理层计划将该等学校的利润水平于2-3年内提升至集团水平，措施包括提升招生能力，成本控制及置换掉利率较高的贷款。有关标的获得超过十家以上机构竞购，管理层认为成功竞购的原因是当地政府有部部门及教育部对希望教育集团认可。我们预期该等学校是将会是集团于FY20-21E的重要增长动力。
具有充足资产用作并购。截止2019年6月30日止，集团持有现金结余26亿人民币，管理层预期于FY19E支付并购的现金支出不超过十亿人民币。我们估计9月份集团将收取约16亿人民币学宿费，集团仍具有充足财政资源用作并购。
估值。我们上调FY19/20/21E经调整凈利润5%/12%/14%，以反映利润率较预期佳及近期的多项并购，包括银川多所学校、昆山学校及鹤壁学校。我们预测集团FY20-21E年均每股盈利复合增长率31%(行业平均为24%)。我们将目标价从1.65港元上调至1.96港元，基于FY20E18倍市盈率(仍是历史平均水平加一个标准差)，以及将估值基准推前(以前是FY19E21倍市盈率)。催化剂﹕(1)政策不明朗性消除、(2)学生人数超预期、(3)并购。风险﹕教师费用大幅增加。
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