《大行报告》中金:内地寿险增长压力持续 车险承保开始好转
中金发表报告指,中资上市保险公司披露了今年中报业绩,净利润按年大幅增长75%,剔除一次性税收返还後增速为39%。新业务价值按年持平。内含价值较年初增长12%(加回分红影响後),股东权益较年初增长14%。该行维持对各中资保险公司目标价和评级不变。
该行表示,上半年行业新业务价值按年持平,如果剔除国寿(02628.HK)的增长23%,则行业按年下降5%,总体低於市场预期。行业人力环比年初下降2%,除国寿升9%和新华(01336.HK)升4%以外,各公司均负增长。代理人人均新业务价值产能按年下降2%,说明行业人均收入大概率亦有下降,因此认为今年下半年行业人力增长依然困难。考虑到下半年新业务相对基数较高,预计下半年行业新业务价值按年增长将为低个位数水平,或弱於市场预期。
中金提到,股市反弹和所得税新规推动利润超预期。上半年行业净利润按年强劲增长75%,超出市场预期。这主要受益於A股反弹推动投资收益按年大幅提升;所得税新规带来的18年多缴所得税返还,剔除该一次性影响则净利润按年增长39%;所得税新规推动实际税率按年下降,行业实际税率按年下降11个百分点。该行预计下半年利润按年增速将有回落。
另外,该行表示车险承保盈利开始好转。财险综合成本率按年上升0.7个百分点至98.2%。车险综合成本率按年上升0.7个百分点至98.1%,但是较去年下半年下降0.6个百分点,说明监管对手续费率的严监管已经开始驱动车险行业承保盈利好转,今年下半年改善将更加显着。
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